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Methodology
$185 avg order = $55 parcel · $815 carrier/LTL the anchors
Proprietary source — the only external inputs. No Pratt assumption anywhere in the model.
p = (185 − 55) ÷ (815 − 55) 17.1% of orders
What mix of $55 and $815 orders averages $185? Solve for it — about 1 in 6 orders is a big carrier order.
w = 17.1% × 815 ÷ 185 75.4% of dollars
Dollars follow the big order: 17% of orders carry 75% of the volume. So prices are weighted by dollars, not by order count.
units = $55 ÷ price · $815 ÷ price per SKU
Each order type spends its whole check on the SKU — that's how many packages it buys.
price@order = the SKU's tier at those units real published tiers
Boxes: Uline's own breaks @25/100/250/500/1000. Bubble & stretch: each SKU's rescraped tiers 1–5. Highest break ≤ units wins.
effective = 24.6% × price@parcel + 75.4% × price@carrier $ the market pays
The price the average dollar actually pays for this SKU — not the list price, not the deepest discount.
$/MSF = eff × 1000 ÷ MSF · $/ton = eff ÷ tons then average
Converted per unit of material, then averaged across the whole universe. Sanity: $185 buys ~86 boxes at the median price — Box discloses ~106/order.
891 of 2,160 corrugated boxes with L×W×H + weight — the ones where MSF and tons are computable
170 flat price boxes — every tier equals the unit price (the red flat price SKUs on the site)
212 bubble SKUs — real rescraped tiers + package weight
209 stretch SKUs — real rescraped tiers + package weight
Worked example
8,320 SKUs scraped→ 891 measurable boxes→ 1 flat price sku
S-4125 · 12 × 12 × 12" Corrugated Box $1.09 per box — same price at every tier (flat price) · 0.98 lbs per box
$55 ÷ $1.09 = 50 boxes · $815 ÷ $1.09 = 747 boxes the two orders
A parcel order buys 50 boxes; a carrier order buys 747 boxes.
effective = 24.6% × $1.09 + 75.4% × $1.09 = $1.09 flat = no discount to find
At 50 units and at 747 units the tier price is still $1.09 — that's what flat pricing means. (A tiered SKU would get cheaper here.)
$1.09 ÷ (0.98 lbs ÷ 2,000) = $2,224/ton this box, done
0.98 lbs = 0.00049 tons of corrugated. One number per SKU, in the most basic unit there is.
The same math ran for all 891 boxes (real values below; red = flat price boxes):
$2,224$2,472 $2,640$2,774 $3,189$3,429 $3,942$4,090 $4,119$4,196 $4,207$4,413 $5,050$5,089 $6,221… ×891
average of all 891$3,926/ton
$3,926/ton The number on the Market-entry slide — vs Pratt internal $1,700/ton = 2.3× lift. Flat price boxes alone average $3,135/ton (1.8×). The identical pipeline produced Bubble $11.72/lb and Stretch $3.74/lb.
How tiers work
891 measurable boxes→ 721 with a real tier ladder→ 1 tiered sku
S-23286 · 6 × 5 × 3" Corrugated Box (32 ECT) $0.48 per box — five price tiers · 0.14 lbs per box
25+
$0.48
parcel · 115 units
100+
$0.43
250+
$0.39
500+
$0.36
carrier · 1,698 units
1000+
$0.35
Each order buys spend ÷ unit price boxes, then pays the tier at the highest break ≤ that many units. The $55 parcel clears the 100 break; the $815 carrier reaches 1000 — the bottom of the ladder.
effective = 24.6% × $0.43 + 75.4% × $0.35 = $0.37/box
75% of the dollars are the carrier order, sitting at the bottom rung — so the market effectively pays near Uline's deepest published discount, not near list.
$0.37 ÷ (0.14 lbs ÷ 2,000) = $5,281/ton
Now the weight: a light box packs more price into less material, so its $/ton runs high — the heavy 0.98 lb flat box in the last act came in at $2,224/ton. Weight is the denominator that sets the metric.
$4,113/ton The tiered-box line on the Market-entry slide — vs Pratt internal $1,700/ton = 2.4× lift. Same pipeline as the flat box; the only difference is the ladder had real rungs, and the big orders climbed to the bottom of it.